OhioVarsity.com - Postseason Primer: D-I

October 27, 2009

Mike Parris
OhioVarsity.com Staff

With just one week left in the regular season, fans, coaches and media across the state are sharpening their pencils and pulling out their calculators in hopes of trying to determine the scenarios that will determine which teams will grab the few precious spots remaining in the playoffs.

Ohio Varsity takes a look, region-by-region, at some of the games to watch and the potential scenarios that could play out in Division I.

(* denotes clinched 1st round home game)

Region 1

Clinched: St. Ignatius*, Solon*, Mayfield, Glenville, North Royalton

On the bubble: Parma, Willoughby South, Boardman, Warren Harding, Euclid, Shaw, Mentor

What to watch: Five teams have clinched so there are three spots remaining for about 6 teams with realistic chances. Parma controls their own destiny, so a win over 2-7 Valley Forge clinches a spot. Euclid takes on Shaw, so the winner will grab one of the spots. The last spot will likely come down to Willoughby South and Boardman. South plays a sub .500 opponent so expect a win, while Boardman, only 0.4 pts back of South, tangles with a tough Austintown-Fitch team. If Boardman wins, expect them to leapfrog South for the final spot.

Prediction: Parma, Euclid, Boardman

Region 2

Clinched: Toledo Whitmer*, Massillon, Twinsburg

On the bubble: Wadsworth, NC Hoover, Canton GlenOak, Brunswick, Hudson, Perrysburg, Amherst, Canton McKinley, Toledo St. John's

What to watch: This is one of the most wide-open regions in the state with five seeds up for grabs. Two of the spots should be gobbled up by Wadsworth and GlenOak, who clinch with wins. Each play sub .500 teams in week 10. That would leave three open spots with a number of possibilities that could play out.

North Canton Hoover should take one of them. They play winless Jackson and won't get many Level 2 points for a win, but at 20.2 pts already, the Vikings should have enough accrued to hold on. Brunswick, currently seventh, will win their week 10 game and likely hold on also. Hudson, currently 8th, plays 1-8 Lakewood. If a team below them wins a game against a tougher foe, the Explorers could get bounced.

The two major threats to Hudson are Perrysburg are Amherst. Perrysburg plays 8-1 Maumee and would certainly enter the top 8 with a win. Amherst has a toss-up game with Avon Lake, but potentially gather enough points with a win.

Two long-shots also are in the mix. Canton McKinley must upset arch-rival Massillon on Saturday and hope that several of the teams in front of them fall, namely Amherst and Perrysburg. Needless to say, the Bulldogs remain a longshot. St. John's has a shot if they can defeat 7-2 Toledo Central Catholic, but like McKinley, also must get alot of help from other teams.

Prediction: Wadsworth, GlenOak, Hoover, Brunswick, Amherst

Region 3

Clinched: Dublin Coffman*, Hilliard Davidson*, Pickerington Central

On the bubble: Olentangy Liberty, Westerville South, Lancaster, Groveport-Madison, Springfield, Upper Arlington, Delaware Hayes, Troy, Pickerington North

What to watch: Like Region 2, there is plenty of uncertainty with a handful of teams all separated by tenths of points. Currently the difference between the sixth seed and tenth seed is less than one point.

Olentangy Liberty and Westerville South currently sit fourth and fifth, respectively, and square off in week 10. The winner is in and almost assuredly will host a round one contest. However, the loser still has a good shot of holding on to one of the final spots. Groveport-Madison should have no problem with their week 10 opponent and should lock up a berth. Lancaster plays winless Newark and won't gain many points, but currently at sixth they should be able to at least retain the eighth seed.

Expect Upper Arlington to be eliminated with a week 10 loss to Coffman and Springfield likely out with a loss to Huber Heights Wayne. That opens the door for Delaware Hayes, who has a tough game against Olentangy Orange. Currently tenth, its simple for Hayes: a win guarantees a playoff berth; a loss and you're out. Troy would probably be the beneficiary of a Hayes loss.

Prediction: Westerville South, Olentangy Liberty, Groveport-Madison, Lancaster, Troy

Region 4

Clinched: Moeller*, St. Xavier*, Elder, Anderson

On the bubble: HH Wayne, Lakota West, Colerain, Lebanon, Centerville, Withrow, Middletown, Northmont

What to watch: This is going to be a wild and wacky week 10 in Region 4, to say the least. Technically there are four remaining spots up for grabs, but realistically three are available as Huber Heights Wayne clinches with a win and it would be a shocker if the Warriors lost to Springfield. Lakota West has a leg up on the race with about a 1.3 point lead over the other bubble teams. They have a rivalry game against 3-6 Lakota East and should win that one without issue, which will get them to right around 25 points. That should be plenty to qualify. That leaves Colerain, Centerville, Lebanon, Withrow and Middletown to battle for the final two spots. The current point totals for the five teams range between 19.87 and 19.23. Yes, it's that close.

So let's take a look at these five closer:

First, and it goes with out saying, that all five must win in week 10. A loss and it's all she wrote for any of them. Fortunately, all five are heavy favorites in each of their week 10 contests.

Lebanon and Withrow have the biggest uphill climbs because they each play poor week 10 opponents (Lebanon vs. 1-8 Miamisburg & Withrow vs 0-9 Aiken). So Lebanon and Aiken are at a natural disadvantage because they will gain few precious Level 2 points. As such, I will eliminate them from contention.

Colerain plays 3-6 Oak Hills. The Cardinals will win, but not gain many L2 points. Luckily, they do already have a slight lead on the others with 19.87 points. Colerain would greatly benefit from a Dupont Manual (KY) upset win over Louisville (KY) Male.

Centerville plays 4-5 Kettering Fairmont. The Elks should have no trouble and will grab a few more L2s than Colerain with a win for facing a stronger opponent. A Springfield win over Wayne would help Centerville's cause from a L2 perspective.

Middletown has the toughest test of the group in week 10, an away contest against 5-4 Princeton. They still should win and will be rewarded for it by gaining more L2s than either Centerville or Colerain.

The "wildcard" is Northmont, who still has a shot with 18.6 points. They obviously need a win over 4-5 Beavercreek. The Bolts also will need a Xenia win over Piqua, a Fairborn win over Springboro (both toss-up games) and cheer particularly hard for a Fairborn win over Centerville. Not only would that knock Centerville out, but give a L2 boost to Northmont.

Ultimately Centerville, Colerain, and Middletown all finish right around 23.5 points. The order could come down to the result of the Fairfield (5-4) vs. Hamilton (2-7) game. Middletown would gain L2s with a Fairfield win, while Colerain would benefit from a Hamilton victory.

In the end, however, Centerville should get the seventh spot and Middletown edges out Colerain for the eighth and final spot. This would be a particularly bitter pill to swallow for Colerain, who defeated Middletown 10-7 last week.

Prediction: Wayne, Lakota West, Centerville, Middletown

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